The Catalan political crisis has had an important impact on the real estate market in the region, however, in the case of the residential sector, it has meant a corrective self for Barcelona.
The consultants say that in Barcelona there was an excessive price heating. Specifically, during the first three quarters of the year there was an interannual growth of 20%, while in the last three months the trend has changed, with a fall of 2%, coinciding with the independence process.
Both buyers and sellers were operating with a speculative mindset. At the beginning of the crisis many operations were encycled, but finally they have been resolved quickly and also prices have not continued to rise. What we have achieved is that we have two good years, instead of a very good year. The forecast for price increases for the region this year is 4%, a very healthy and sustained growth, which in the case of metropolitan areas can amount to 11%.
On the other hand, the firm forecasts that the price of housing in Spain will rise more than 10% this year, driven by an increase in the demand for first-access properties -mainly by young people- and the investor "appetite". Although a housing bubble is not expected, because the market situation differs greatly from that of 2006.
One of the trends detected by the study is that, for the first time in the current expansive phase of the cycle, many families living on rent will exchange their current home for one property for a double reason: the lower requirements of the bank to grant mortgages and the expected high job creation.
The report indicates that the rise in the price of housing will be higher than 10% in an environment where sales will increase by 20%. Although the demand for improvement and investment will continue to be the main drivers of the market, the first access to property (made mainly by young people) will begin to be significant.